The overall numbers still point to an 8 to 10 percent turnout for next week’s Trinity referendum, but looking at some specific locations may give us an idea of what’s going to happen.
Keep in mind that this is educated guessing — it’s difficult to wade through the preliminary totals as compiled by Dallas county election officials since they’re broken down by early voting location, and not by ballot. Someone from Carrollton or Duncanville can vote at a site in the city, but they’ll use the ballot specific for Carollton or Duncanville, which doesn’t include the Trinity proposition.
Having said that, it looks like turnout in Preston Hollow and Far North Dallas will approach that of the May mayoral election. So far, turnout at Our Redeemer Lutheran Church on Park Lane is about 80 percent of what it was in May with three days to go, and it’s a little better than that at Fretz Park. Those numbers may well be good news for the anti-toll road side, since it seems to have a lot of support in those areas.
In East Dallas and Lake Highlands, turnout is weaker — just two-thirds of May’s total at Samuell Grand and 72 percent at First Assembly of God on Northwest Highway. It’s more difficult to figure out what those numbers mean, since turnout at Samuell Grand is never as big as I think it should be and Lake Highlands is the true mystery of this election. There doesn’t seem to be much interest there, so which side is hurt by a low turnout is difficult to figure.
On the other hand, if the pro-toll road side is counting on voters who don’t live north of the Trinity, it may be in big trouble. Voting at the Oak Cliff sub-courthouse is 47 percent of the May total, it’s 45 percent at the MLK center near Fair Park, and it’s 51 percent at Martin Weiss at Westmoreland and Clarendon.